February 12, 2010  Volume 89, Number 33

ROTARY'S FOUR WAY TEST "Of the things we think, say or do: 1. Is it the TRUTH?  2. Is it FAIR to all concerned? 3. Will it Build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS? 4. Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?"

February -  World Understanding Month

OPENING

Greeters: Beth Faylor and Lynda Phillippi. Inspirational Moment: Rich Scheiber Flag Salute: Paul Elias

VISITING ROTARIANS AND GUESTS

MAIN EVENT

Featured Program—Scott Chambers: State of the Economy Review and Outlook. Scott began his presentation with a Q & A session to find out what people are thinking about. Questions ranged from thoughts on Ben Bernanke’s plan to “unwind the Fed” (11 page testimony available online) to the situation with Greece’s economy (EU is bailing them out) to what’s the story with commercial real estate: good investment or not? (Scott says not yet.) Scott feels that though the economy is showing signs of life (4^th quarter of 2009 looked decent) there are still areas of concern. We have to reform the banking system. Nothing’s changed since the whole thing crashed. In addition, we have to worry about the unprecedented level of federal debt and the projected deficit spending the President’s budget proposes through the end of the decade. And we need regulatory reform. At 14 trillion dollars, the US economy is equal to all the EU nations combined and remains the largest economy in the world. However, half of our debt is held by interests outside the US and the largest single holder of US debt is the government of China. While the rate of decline has slowed in the housing market, housing prices have dropped 30% nationally and about 20% in Oregon. 3 million homes went into foreclosure in 2009 and 26% of US mortgage holders are currently “under water” on their mortgages. So Scott doesn’t see the housing market rebounding dramatically anytime soon. And he doesn’t think we’ve seen the worst in the commercial real estate market. We need a fundamental reform in mortgage law. The unemployment rate is down a bit. Nationally it is just under 10% and is about 11% here in Oregon. Scott says he expects to see those numbers drop about a percentage point a year for the next three years. And the state of Oregon is facing some “fairly dire choices” going into the future. We’ve received about 3 billion dollars in stimulus money and when it goes away, we’ll have to decide, now what? The stock market is down 1% over the last ten years, not fabulous news for investors. Overall, Scott believes this will be a year of transitions, with many issues-- the banking system, the deficit, and the federal reserve-- to resolve before growth is significant. He says we have to get all the extra liquidity out of the market in the next couple of years or face the possibility of inflation. Scott recommended two books. “This Time it’s Different” examines 800 years of world financial catastrophes and “In Fed We Trust” is an easier read, outlining what went wrong in the most recent economic downturn. At the close of his presentation, President Jan Hartzell invited Scott to sign a book for the Early Readers’ Program and of course, he gets to keep the pen.

CLOSING

 

President Jan announced a Board meeting on Tuesday the 16^th, which counts as a make up if anyone wants to attend. It’s at the American legion Hall at 11:45. President Jan informed the club that Johannes Goddik is having cataract surgery, as is Bob Rhoads and  Waldo Farnham just had a knee replacement surgery, in case anyone would like to send cards. Next week’s program: Recycling with Darol Funk.

Meeting Make-up Options Online

"When meeting day comes around, I do not have to decide whether to attend or not, for that has already been decided for me . . .
it was one of the obligations I accepted when I joined Rotary." -- A Rotarian 

Back to McMinnville Rotary's Home Page

Copyright (c) 2010 * Rotary Club of McMinnville * All Rights Reserved